The S&P 500 broke a four-day winning streak on Thursday with a loss of 0.5%. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 9:4 while the up/down volume ratio was bearish by a slightly more robust 7:3 margin. Turnover fell by 5%. The daily Coppock Curve still has a bullish bias for 14 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 19 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index posted its third straight gain with a rally of 0.2%. Internally, however, 24 of the 35 markets that we most regularly follow on a daily basis were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 21 of the 35 markets.

There is not much to add to recent comments relative to the US equity market. Thursday’s action had virtually no impact on either the bullish or bearish underpinnings. So, as we look at other asset classes, it is important to note that the US dollar is on the verge of piercing its July 2012 high. We have put some significance on that peak, viewing it as a potentially significant intermediate (B)-wave. The fact...

The S&P 500 gained 0.5% on Wednesday. This was its fourth straight gain – and ninth in the last 10 sessions. As a result, the index again achieved all-time highs on both an intra-day and closing basis. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by 9:5 while the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a more robust 2:1 margin. Turnover increased by 6%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 17 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 22 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index rallied by less than 0.1%. Internally, 28 of the 35 markets that we most regularly follow on a daily basis were higher, but the daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 21 of the 35 markets.

The rally of just the past several days has carried both the S&P 500 and some important indicators through significant benchmarks, thereby invigorating the dominant uptrend. For example, the number of common stocks hitting a new 52-week high hit levels not seen since April 2010. The Bullish Percent Index for the broad S&P 1500...

Last week, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%; so far this year, the index has only had four down weeks. Perhaps more impressively, the bellwether DJIA (which gained 1.0% last week) has recorded a higher high during 17 of the 19 weeks this year – and eight of those have been all-time highs. Advancing NYSE issues exceeded losers by 7:4 for the week, while the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a slightly more modest 5:3 margin. Average daily composite volume fell 4% to the fourth lowest level of the year. The weekly Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 14 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 16 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index rallied by 0.7%. The weekly Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 20 of the 37 markets that we most regularly follow on a weekly basis.

On several occasions recently, we noted that the daily Coppock Curve was on the verge of running its string of days at or above its neutral “zero” line to the longest since 1995. This breakout in time was accomplished on Friday...

On Thursday, the S&P 500 broke a five-day winning streak with a loss of 0.4%. This just-completed winning streak was the fourth such string of at least five-straight gains this year. By contrast, there has only been one losing streak of more than two days. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 7:3, but the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a more modest 15:8 margin. Turnover fell 4%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 18 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 18 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index fell 1.1%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 27 of the 35 markets that we most regularly follow on a daily basis.

There was a fair amount of chatter in the financial press about today’s dollar strength, particularly against the Japanese yen. From our perspective, that breakout is fairly important. Both USD/JPY and the Nikkei 225 have been on a tear in recent weeks. Regardless of the causal relationship between the two, we have been counting the dollar’s April...

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 recorded its fifth straight gain with a rally of 0.4%. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by a bit more than 2:1, while the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a more robust 9:4 margin. Turnover increased by 8%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 18 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 20 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index rallied by 1.1%, which is its best performance in three weeks. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 34 of the 35 markets that we most regularly follow on a daily basis.

On Tuesday, the DJIA’s Bullish Percent Index reached 96.67%. As defined in our website’s glossary, the Bullish Percent Index (BPI or BP) is a breadth/momentum indicator that is most commonly calculated by dividing the number of stocks that are trading on a Point and Figure (P&F) buy signal by the total number of stocks within the group being analyzed. In the present case this means that 29 of the 30 stocks...

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 recorded its fourth straight gain with a rally of 0.5%. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by 7:2, while the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a more modest 5:2 margin. Turnover increased by 8% but is below its 21-day ma. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 18 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 20 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index rallied by 0.9%, which is only the second gain in five sessions. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 30 of the 35 markets that we most regularly follow on a daily basis.

In our just-released Monthly Review, we noted that the S&P 500 is on the verge of having its longest period of time without a 5% correction while the daily Coppock Curve is on the verge of running its string of days at or above its neutral “zero” line to the longest since 1995. We referred to these streaks as being “off the charts.” They obviously reflect the trending nature of the post-November rally.

Along with...

“Plain English”

US Equities: Every year since the last secular low in 1982 has experienced at least one correction in excess of 5% except 1995. The great, great majority of those years also participated in a correction of at least 10%. Now – with a mature Elliott Wave count, overbought momentum, overbought sentiment, and “sell in May” – it seems that the best part of this year is coming to an end.

The Rest of the World: At the end of March, the monthly oscillator had a bullish bias for 35 of the 37 countries; at the end of April it was 33. This is still a solid majority, but the downtick suggests that long term uptrends are increasingly mature. Overall, we expect that the oscillator will have a bearish bias for most countries by August-October.

Yields: The weekly oscillator for US yields is positioned to remain weak for another month or so. Sentiment is not yet oversold, but is rapidly heading in that direction, so it seems quite likely that a rally following the next intermediate low should...

“Plain English”

US Equities: The April 18 low qualifies as at least a 35-day – and perhaps a 20-week – cycle low. On April 17-18, there were more new 52-week lows than highs for the first time since February and the second time since November. Moreover, on April 18 almost half of the stocks in the NYSE Composite (and a bit more than 42% of the stocks in the S&P Composite 1500) were at least 10% below their 52-week high. These conditions suggest that the headline indexes were hiding the fact that much of “the market” has been in a full-blown correction in recent weeks.

Global Equities: We previously suggested that the Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index’s early April high was likely a high “B” wave following March’s peak. The subsequent decline (which held indicated support at 213-212), followed by last week’s rally, helps confirm that count. As a result, further strength could be counted as the kick-off for the fifth wave from last June’s low.

Interest Rates: US 10-year yields have been testing...

On Thursday, the S&P 500 posted its fifth straight gain with a rally of 0.4%. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by a bit better than 2:1 while the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a slightly more robust 9:4 margin. Turnover increased by 8.0%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 16 of the 24 S&P industry groups but has a bearish bias for 16 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index also rallied for the fifth consecutive day with a gain of 0.4%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 30 of the 35 markets that we most regularly follow on a daily basis.

As noted, the S&P 500 (and other indexes) is on a winning streak. However, the “500” is still below its recent all-time high (recorded earlier this month). By contrast, both the NYSE all-share and NYSE common stock cumulative advance-decline lines have broken out to new all-time highs. Moreover, our Elliott Wave counts for the a-d lines are not complete. On a number of occasions, we have noted that major market tops...

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rallied 0.01 points, but that was enough to extend its winning streak to four days. Despite this paltry gain, breadth was solidly positive; advancing stocks exceeded losers by 7:3 and the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a slightly smaller margin. Turnover was little changed. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 15 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 15 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index also rallied for the fourth consecutive day with a gain of 1.0%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 30 of the 35 markets that we most regularly follow on a daily basis.

Yesterday’s comment was mostly focused on the prospects for some short term improvement. That said, we did note that we expect the currently deteriorating weekly Coppock Curve to withstand any short term strength. The oscillators for the S&P and for most of its 24 industry groups are positioned to have a bearish bias through much, if not all, of the current quarter. It will...